Any time we put out content on the dangers of smoking, vaping, alcohol, elevated ApoB/LDL, etc., we are met with a barrage of comments:
"My grandmother had sky-high cholesterol her entire life and lived to 102."
"My uncle smoked two packs a day for 50 years and never got lung cancer."
"My neighbor never exercised, never saw a doctor, ate whatever he wanted — and outlived the cardiologist who warned him."
The truth is: I absolutely believe these stories.
Many times these stories are true.
But in today's newsletter, I want to convey the message that a true story is not the same as a representative story.
The Anecdotal Fallacy
I want to use another example to help convey this idea.
On average, 25 million Mega Millions lottery tickets are purchased each week.
That's 1,300,000,000 Mega Million lottery tickets purchased per year.
In 2025, there were only 6 Mega Millions winners.
If you were in a room with all six winners and each one of them told you about the day they won the lottery, you would be convinced that you, too, had a shot at becoming the next Mega Millions Lottery winner.
Unfortunately, even with those six winners' stories being true, you are missing the 1.3 BILLION other stories from the not-so-lucky lottery players.
If you heard the losing ticket buyer's story, you would be deterred.
This is an example of the Anecdotal Fallacy, where we take one story, one outlier, one exception, and use it to overshadow what the entire data tells us.
We shouldn't let outliers' outcomes influence recommendations for the masses.
Just because there is a Mega Millions winner every year doesn't mean financial advisors, accountants, and money managers are going to encourage you to play.
The same applies to your health journey and longevity.
It is a game of probability.
Data: The Burden of Evidence
I want to emphasize that I have little doubt that these exceptional stories are true, but are they representative of the masses?
Medical recommendations, therapy, and guidelines are not made on a hunch.
Recommendations are made by examining large populations over decades to identify trends.
Your grandmother, who smoked and lived to 102, is real. She is also the exception — the rare outlier whose biology, luck, and genetics let her beat odds most people do not.
For every grandmother like her, there are thousands of people the same age who are no longer here to tell their story. We only hear from the survivors.
That's the trap.
So when someone points to the one person who got away with it, they're describing the winner of a lottery — and quietly ignoring everyone who bought a ticket and lost.
The opposite is also true.
You can do everything right. Exercise, diet, rest, and recovery, and still get cancer, heart disease, or another serious illness.
I have operated on those patients. At times, it can be difficult to understand.
"So if the smoker can live to 102, and the person who did everything right can still get sick — what is the point of any of it?"
Here's the point.
You are not trying to guarantee an outcome. There are no guarantees.
You are trying to shift the odds.
Bottom Line: Stack the Deck in Your Favor
Think of it like a deck of cards.
Nobody can promise you which card you'll draw. But every healthy choice you make takes a few bad cards out of the deck and puts a few good ones in.
What healthy choices stack the deck?
- Fuel your body with fiber, fruits, vegetables, lean protein, and whole grains while limiting added sugar and heavily processed foods.
- Stay active with a mix of cardio and strength training.
- Prioritize sleep.
- Nurture your relationships and stay socially engaged.
- Avoid tobacco and keep alcohol or other substances in check.
- Keep your blood pressure and blood sugar in healthy ranges.
- Take care of your mental health and seek treatment when needed.
- Look after your teeth and gums.
- Keep up with recommended cancer screenings.
- Stick with consistent primary care visits.
Each one of those, on its own, may feel small. Together, they quietly reshape the entire deck you're drawing from.
You are still gambling — we all are. But you get to decide whether you're playing with the odds in your favor or against you.
This isn't a bet on a car, or a house, or money you can earn back.
The commodity is your life.
It is the single most precious thing you will ever own, and you cannot buy more of it once it's gone.
So ask yourself:
When the stakes are that high — when what's on the line is irreplaceable — wouldn't you want every advantage?
Wouldn't you want the deck stacked in your favor?
My challenge to you this week: stop pointing at the outlier, and start playing your own odds.
Pick one card you can change. Start today.
Stay Hydrated. Replace What You Lose.
Hydration isn’t just about drinking more water — it’s about replacing what you lose.
When you sweat (from workouts, sauna sessions, or just daily life activities), you’re not just losing water — you’re losing electrolytes like sodium, potassium, and magnesium.
That's why I drink LMNT as my electrolyte replacement.
LMNT uses a science-backed electrolyte ratio of sodium, potassium, and magnesium.
Electrolytes are used by every cell in your body. Even minimal dehydration can limit cognitive and physical performance.
LMNT tastes great and helps me replenish my electrolytes after a hard workout or a sauna session. I mix one LMNT packet (usually Grapefruit Salt, my favorite flavor) into a 32-oz water bottle to stay hydrated throughout the day.
If you are active, sweat often, and want to try LMNT for yourself, click here to receive a FREE sample pack of all 8 flavors with any purchase, plus a No-Questions-Asked Refund Policy.
Only the best,
Jeremy London, MD
P.S. Don't forget to follow my podcast for free on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
